Software Engineers' Prometheus Moment

Labor income share answers a simple question: of all the economic value created in the world, how much comes from human work versus machines, software, and capital? The International Labour Organization reports that nearly 40% of the global decline in labor's income share between 2004 and 2024 occurred in just three years - 2020 to 2022 (1). And the trend is accelerating: a 2025 study across European regions found the direct link: for every doubling of regional AI innovation, labor's share of income drops by 0.5% to 1.6% (2).

In other words, the more AI advances, the smaller the slice that goes to human work. Up until five years ago, everyone predicted that people with routine jobs would be the ones displaced first - as computer programmers built programs to replace them. Isn't it ironic, don't you think?

For forty years, software engineers have woken up each morning to solve fascinating problems and to build things that didn't exist. But if we're honest about the cumulative effect of their work - from the travel agent who used to book your flights to your friendly neighbourhood store owner - all disrupted. The software ate their jobs, and the people who wrote the software were rewarded handsomely for it.

The technological revolution created extraordinary value, and nations LOVE computer programmers. They pay disproportionate taxes, drive economic growth, and build the tools that keep nations competitive. The same technological shift that made the physical strength of manly men less relevant made cognitive ability more valuable. The geek who would have struggled in a medieval village became a titan in Silicon Valley.

But here's what's tricky about value: it's never permanent.

The code is learning to write itself. I don't know of a single new startup that isn't AI-native - built around AI rather than programmers. The same logic that made it rational to automate the travel agent's job now makes it rational to automate the coder's job.

Alanis' 'rain on your wedding day' is just bad luck. But this? The people who build tools to automate other people's jobs, now facing their own tools making them irrelevant? That's actual irony. Greek tragedy level. Prometheus gave fire to humans and was punished by the gods. Programmers gave automation to the world and are now being consumed by it.

Relevance is our sense that we have value in the world, that we make a positive impact. For many of these programmers, that sense has been tightly bound to their ability to provide for their families through skills that were scarce and valuable. When those skills become abundant, the search for relevance gets urgent.

I believe 2026 and 2027 will make this search by programmers impossible to ignore. And here's the thing: if we can't figure this out for highly capable people, how will we do it for everyone else? This is a test for our society - one I'm confident we can pass, but only if we're willing to discuss it openly.

The energetic network of value exchange is the invisible web through which human acts transfer value between people. Money is one way through which value moves, but it's not the only one. A hug, a word of advice, a moment of presence - these are also transfers of energy that make people feel they matter. AI is reshaping this network in ways we're only beginning to understand. The subtleties of how value flows between humans, who gets to feel they contribute, who gets left out-these questions are about to become very real for a group that never expected to face them.

The karma isn't cruel. It's just consistent. And the conversation is just beginning.

Be well and hug your loved ones, Amit

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References:

1. International Labour Organization. (2024). World Employment and Social Outlook: September 2024 Update. ILO. https://www.ilo.org/publications/flagship-reports/world-employment-and-social-outlook-september-2024-update

2. Minniti, A., Prettner, K., & Venturini, F. (2025). AI innovation and the labor share in European regions. European Economic Review. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105043